Researchers at England’s University College London have devised a computer model that uses data from midsummer winds to predict the likelihood of hurricanes striking the United States later in the season.

The model was created by sci Benfield Hazard Research Centre. The center is sponsored by Benfield, a London-based reinsurance company that is one of the world’s largest.

The new model could get a real workout right from the start. Forecasters think a ten-year trend of active hurricane seasons will continue this summer.